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Sunday, February 1, 2015

My New Improved 2015 Super Bowl Prognostications

Superbowl 49 Predictions

Some may recall my Super Bowl prediction last year. I think I might have said something like this:
 "Most prognosticators are calling a close game. I don't see it. You can throw the Seahawk's statistics out the window when they are not playing in Seattle. Their home field advantage distorts the statistics. Seattle won't have that edge against Denver in New Jersey against Peyton Manning. 

Peyton Manning is the best there ever was as a field general reading and reacting to defenses. Nobody can do what he does on the field. This Seattle D has not played against anything like a Peyton Manning offense firing on all cylinders. They're not ready for this.  Russell Wilson is a very talented young quarterback but it's very rare for a first or second year quarterback to win the Superbowl.  I don't expect Wilson to play to form outside of Seattle and under this pressure. Generally Superbowl games are blowouts. It'll be Denver Broncos in a blowout."
                              Denver 42 Seattle 21
 Well, At least I got the "blowout" part right. There were consequences:

2014 Superbowl Prediction Outcome

It's a new year, and I'd like to think I learned a lesson from that experience.  After due consideration, and more detailed analysis - my new and improved 2015 Superbowl Prediction:
Most prognosticators are calling a close game. I don't see it. You can throw the Seahawk's statistics out the window when they are not playing in Seattle. Their home field advantage distorts the statistics. Seattle won't have that edge against New England in Arizona against Tom Brady.

Tom Brady is the best there ever was as a field general reading and reacting to defenses. Nobody can do what he does on the field. This Seattle D has not played against anything like a Tom Brady offense firing on all cylinders. They're not ready for this.  Russell Wilson is a very talented young quarterback but it's very rare for a first or second year quarterback to win the Superbowl.  I don't expect Wilson to play to form outside of Seattle and under this pressure. Generally Superbowl games are blowouts. It'll be New England Patriots in a blowout.
 
New England 42 Seattle 21
Bet on it.

UPDATE  2-2-2015:
At least I got the winning team right, although the point spread was a bit off. If Brady had not thrown two piks, I might have been a little closer. And yeah, The Butler did it. One of the greatest defensive plays of all time.



 Note To Self: Next year, just go with the EA Madden NFL Video Game Prediction. They nailed the actual halftime and final score five days in advance:

Kinda scary.

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